@mitu Thank you!
It's possible I'm confused by the implementation vs. the Raspberry Pi version...EmulationStation uses X11 on x86? I assumed no, and that was my whole motivation for not doing so (plus the obvious memory and time burn from launching an X display you aren't going to use anyway). If that's not the case, it sounds like xrandr is absolutely the way to go (and the closest analog to what I'm doing today).
onstart will almost certainly be required, because my display lies and says it can't do PAL ;)